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Ireland election: Exit poll suggests little change

Dec 01, 2024

Dublin [Ireland], December 1: Polls closed on Friday in Ireland's general election amid a
tight race between the incumbent coalition parties and the opposition party Sinn Fein.
According to exit polls, Ireland's three largest parties were projected to get roughly
equal shares of the vote, with Sinn Fein slightly ahead on 21.1%, Fine Gael on 21% and
Fianna Fail on 19.5%.
If they stand, the exit polls would represent little change to the current make-up of the
Irish parliament, meaning that Fianna Fail and Fine Gael would likely hold on to power in
coalition with each other and a few smaller parties.
The exit poll is only indicative of the support base for each political parties, but the final
results will be determined by transfer votes, which is a key part of Ireland's proportional
representation electoral system.
When will we see the final results?
Ballot counting will begin in earnest on Saturday morning. Final results are not expected
for several hours or even several days.
The ballot will see a total of 174 seats of the lower chamber of parliament - the Dail -
being filled, which is more than ever before.
Over 3 million voters are registered to cast their ballot in an election that has been
focused on the country's cost-of-living and housing crises, the response to an uptick in
immigration, and economic management for potential future trade shocks.
Who are the major parties?
Opinion polls had put the country's three big parties - center-right Fine Gael and
Fianna Fail, and the left-wing Sinn Fein party that calls for Northern Ireland to exit the UK
and become a part of a united Ireland - each at around 20%.
Fine Gael and Fianna Fail - two parties that came up from opposing sides of the Irish
Civil War in the 1920s - set aside a nearly century-old rivalry and agreed to share
power after the general election in 2020 saw an inconclusive result.
Mary Lou McDonald on the campaign trail
Sinn Fein - which won the popular vote in 2020 - failed to run enough candidates,
meaning it did not secure enough seats in the Dail to be given a chance to form
government.
Sinn Fein's leader Mary Lou McDonald has fielded many more candidates this time
around and has called on Irish voters to elect a government of change without Fine Gael
or Fianna Fail.
The left-wing nationalist party is also active in Northern Ireland where it currently has a
majority in the parliament. One of the party's main goals is to unite the island of Ireland,
something that is provisioned in the Good Friday Agreement, should a majority of voters
back such a move in a referendum.
Snap vote
Friday's vote comes after Irish prime minister and Fine Gael's leader Simon Harris
called a snap election earlier this month.
In April, Harris became Ireland's youngest-ever taoiseach, or prime minister, at age 37
after replacing his predecessor Leo Varadkar.
He is popularly touted as the "TikTok taoiseach" for being social media savvy, an
advantage he has used to re-invigorate Fine Gael.
Fine Gael showed a solid lead as it entered the election campaign.
However, the party suFFered a setback after a video of Harris appearing to be rude and
dismissive to a care worker on the campaign trail went viral.
When the snap election was called, Sinn Fein was also marred by a series of
controversies, which include former party members writing job references for a
colleague who was later convicted of child sex crimes.
The calculations to form a majority could be tricky with several smaller parties and
many independents also potentially vying for a place in government.
Source: Times of Oman

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